Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc588…4650 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$247 (+35%) realized +$250 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$117
sports 36% +$217
crypto 14% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +34.3%
≤30d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +34.3%
≤90d 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +34.3%
all 4 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% +34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 50% +34.3%
10% -15.6% 50% +21.4%
15% -23.8% 50% +9.7%
20% -31.2% 50% -1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$73 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized+$250
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $97 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $150 +$120 +80%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $200 +$265 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 35¢ $50 28h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $100 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.00 · official $192.00 (match) · 13 history records