Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc588…09e7 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1
world 42% $0
sports 7% −$4
politics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage476d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $29 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $59 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on March 14? Mar 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $10 $0 +0%
Oklahoma State vs. UCF Mar 04 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get <34m viewers? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Xavier vs. Butler Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $18 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $30 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $30 13h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $3 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $27 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $1 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $28 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $12 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 62¢ $18 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $30 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $23 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $15 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $15 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $30 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $29 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $30 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $4 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records