Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc586…422f politics 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$12
politics 42% −$13
sports 8% −$23
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.1% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 117 -1.3% -10.7% 6% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 110
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage113d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $222 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $163 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $215 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 26 $220 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $193 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $381 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $160 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $404 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $153 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $177 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $343 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $164 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $210 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $203 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $387 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $412 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $225 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $437 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 8d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 8d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $200 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $200 22d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $163 23d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $163 23d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $215 24d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $215 24d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $220 24d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $220 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $193 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $193 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $172 26d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $172 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $154 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $154 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $205 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $205 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 345 history records