Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc585…357f crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$34 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days+$2
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$66
sports 6% +$91
economics 3% −$17
other 2% +$24
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% -11.8%
≤30d 8 +33.7% +20.9% 88% 88% -2.2%
≤90d 23 +12.1% +1.4% 87% 78% -3.7%
all 64 -37.2% -43.2% 42% 31% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.2% 31% -9.3%
10% -48.6% 11% -18.0%
15% -53.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -58.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -91% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage184d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 41¢ 40¢ $125 $124 −$2 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $109 $109 +$1 (+1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 83¢ 84¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 24 $330 −$17 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 +$8 +13%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $52 +$12 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $45 +$15 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $35 +$5 +13%
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 02 $6 +$9 +149%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 29 $50 +$7 +15%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $43 +$12 +27%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor May 19 $31 +$6 +18%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $21 +$6 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 09 $42 +$7 +16%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $21 +$2 +11%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $30 +$2 +5%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Ozarox Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Apr 23 $9 +$2 +18%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 22 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $26 +$2 +6%
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 16 $16 +$3 +16%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 13 $29 +$4 +14%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Apr 09 $23 +$3 +12%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 31 $8 +$2 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, M Mar 31 $12 +$2 +19%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Auburn Tigers Mar 31 $17 +$4 +23%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Mar 24 $7 +$47 +669%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Mar 23 $15 +$3 +17%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $10 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 17 $3 −$2 -48%
ODI Series New Zealand vs Zimbabwe, Women: New Zealand vs Zimbabwe Mar 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 2AM ET Mar 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on December 3 Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 5? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 8? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 30? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 30? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 31? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 4? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 6? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 6? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 5? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 7? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 14? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 21? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 480m Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $9,702 +$10 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $100 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 41¢ $127 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $9 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $10 11h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $184 11h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 42¢ $12 34h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 43¢ $146 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $58 2d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 81¢ $52 13d
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 74¢ $45 15d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 88¢ $35 19d
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes $10 21d
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes $1 22d
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes $0 24d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe BUY DN SOOPers Challengers 87¢ $50 26d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 78¢ $43 28d
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes $0 35d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - Esports World Cup Kor BUY Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ $31 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $21 43d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Top Esports 86¢ $42 46d
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 90¢ $21 49d
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 95¢ $30 55d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $22 62d
LoL: Dark Passage vs Ozarox Esports (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Ozarox Esports 84¢ $9 62d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 89¢ $11 65d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 94¢ $26 69d
LoL: paiN Gaming vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY FURIA Esports 86¢ $16 72d
Mavericks vs. Suns BUY Suns 87¢ $29 76d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier BUY JD Gaming 89¢ $23 85d
Will LGD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? SELL Yes $0 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.06 · official $243.06 (match) · 172 history records