Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:47:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc584…65c7 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$72 (-2%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 51% −$5
world 20% −$34
politics 18% −$19
other 8% −$24
tech 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 33 -21.0% -28.5% 21% 9% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 9% -12.3%
10% -35.3% 9% -20.7%
15% -41.6% 6% -28.3%
20% -47.3% 3% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage540d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 16 $26 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on February 19? Feb 28 $19 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 19 $23 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Feb 18 $29 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $29 −$14 -50%
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 09 $33 −$4 -12%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 09 $33 $0 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 27 $45 −$10 -23%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 10 $48 −$1 -1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 06 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $498 −$2 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 27 $509 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Sep 27 $514 −$6 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 26 $1,032 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 27 $1 +$5 +463%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by February 28, 2025? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 04 $3 $0 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 04 $2 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $3 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 04 $5 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? Jan 06 $5 $0 +2%
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 06 $4 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 1h
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 90d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 90d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 10¢ $19 106d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 115d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 115d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 116d
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 125d
Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 126d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 22¢ $2 138d
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? SELL Yes 6¢ $35 138d
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? BUY Yes 8¢ $45 139d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $2 186d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $47 186d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $48 186d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 77¢ $48 220d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 220d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 82¢ $50 248d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 248d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL Yes 87¢ $495 260d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 88¢ $498 260d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $498 260d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $508 260d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 88¢ $508 260d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 89¢ $514 260d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $514 261d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $515 262d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 96¢ $515 262d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $517 262d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? SELL Yes 75¢ $8 272d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.60 · official $49.60 (match) · 70 history records