Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc57f…7a32 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-9%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$181
weather 29% −$64
crypto 8% −$39
sports 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.6% -7.2% 34% 31% -1.5%
≤30d 29 +2.6% -7.2% 34% 31% -1.5%
≤90d 29 +2.6% -7.2% 34% 31% -1.5%
all 29 +2.6% -7.2% 34% 31% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 31% -1.5%
10% -16.1% 24% -11.0%
15% -24.2% 17% -19.6%
20% -31.6% 14% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $100 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $51 −$8 -15%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$26 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $62 −$15 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 27? Jun 26 $9 −$7 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $81 −$31 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $15 −$4 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 83°F or below on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 +$4 +19%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $15 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 24 $6 −$2 -41%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 23 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$20 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 −$31 -76%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 3+ shots AND Will Senegal Jun 23 $31 +$176 +572%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$32 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $97 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 43h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? SELL Yes 46¢ $43 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $77 2d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? SELL Yes 34¢ $47 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 27? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 27? BUY Yes $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY Yes 42¢ $62 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? SELL No 38¢ $4 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records