Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:14:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C5 0xc57d…abde other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL +$164 (+15%) realized +$170 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days−$34
14 days+$127
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$71
sports 22% +$80
world 3% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.2% -17.9% 30% 30% -13.4%
≤30d 34 +39.6% +26.3% 35% 35% +2.5%
≤90d 34 +39.6% +26.3% 35% 35% +2.5%
all 34 +39.6% +26.3% 35% 35% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 35% +2.5%
10% +14.2% 35% -7.3%
15% +3.2% 35% -16.3%
20% -6.9% 29% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$24 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage12d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$19 +187%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$76 +373%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $86 +$39 +46%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 +$31 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$129 +127%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$48 +468%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$36 +71%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$171 +1666%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $86 30h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 33h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $65 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $230 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.64 · official $113.64 (match) · 63 history records