Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc57c…534d other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$4
other 35% +$2
politics 13% −$1
crypto 4% $0
weather 3% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -8.2% -17.0% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 -5.4% -14.4% 20% 7% -10.4%
≤90d 15 -5.4% -14.4% 20% 7% -10.4%
all 50 -3.2% -12.4% 40% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 6% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage426d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $4 $0 -12%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 −$4 -25%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? May 19 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 19 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Jaime Mulet win the Chilean presidential election? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $24 $0 +1%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Will France be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on May May 12 $25 $0 +2%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 10 $6 −$1 -22%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 25 $9 +$3 +31%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island in t Apr 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 23 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 20 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $21 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $18 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $36 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 38h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $32 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $37 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.55 · official $35.88 (match) · 161 history records