trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 20% | 0% | -9.8% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 40% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 29 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 52% | 3% | -7.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 3% | -7.4% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 3% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 3% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 3% | -31.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 7¢ | 4¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-47%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 25 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 25 | $38 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 25 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 07 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 03 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $42 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? | Dec 10 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and | Jun 10 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Jun 07 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 09 | $17 | +$16 | +93% |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 07 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Apr 04 | $17 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb | Apr 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run | Apr 01 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 30 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? | Mar 24 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 23 | $2 | $0 | -3% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 21 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election? | Mar 20 | $18 | $0 | +1% |