Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc57a…5935 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 35% +$15
sports 5% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -3.5% -12.7% 52% 3% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -7.4%
10% -21.1% 3% -16.3%
15% -28.7% 3% -24.4%
20% -35.7% 3% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.42 per $1 lost it wins $5.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage484d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $40 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $38 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $38 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $42 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $17 +$16 +93%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $16 $0 -1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 23 $2 $0 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 26% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $16 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $23 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $15 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $23 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $2 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $0 47h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $45 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $45 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $45 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $15 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $42 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records