Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc57a…583e sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 36% −$10
sports 34% +$4
other 28% +$3
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +108.3% +88.4% 71% 71% +90.0%
≤30d 7 +108.3% +88.4% 71% 71% +90.0%
≤90d 27 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 33% -15.3%
all 27 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 33% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 33% -15.3%
10% -26.3% 33% -23.4%
15% -33.4% 26% -30.8%
20% -40.0% 22% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions35
Markets (closed)27 / 62
History coverage53d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 23 $1 +$3 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.27 · official $33.27 (match) · 85 history records