Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc579…def6 crypto 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$35 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%188W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$24
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$4
politics 15% −$41
finance 2% −$9
economics 1% $0
other 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 196 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.7%
≤90d 196 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.7%
all 196 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 1% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 1% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses188 / 8
Open positions16
Markets (closed)196 / 212
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 96¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 80¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 50¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-49%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 24m
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 96¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.35 · official $279.29 (match) · 407 history records