Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc578…cd85 weather 57 markets active 3d ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+3%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate79%45W / 12L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% $0
other 30% −$2
world 14% +$188
sports 13% +$13
tech 4% +$1
weather 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 43 +1.3% -8.3% 84% 5% -5.7%
all 57 +1.0% -8.6% 79% 4% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 4% -7.0%
10% -17.3% 2% -15.9%
15% -25.3% 2% -24.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×34.9 per $1 lost it wins $34.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses45 / 12
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage139d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 57 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 22? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 22? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 28? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 21 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 27 $505 +$187 +37%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $392 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $5 $0 +4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $394 +$1 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $365 +$3 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $64 +$10 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $495 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $763 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $491 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $768 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $452 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 16 $21 $0 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 14 $94 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $173 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? Mar 11 $102 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $8 30d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 30d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $6 30d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on April 2 BUY No 99¢ $1 55d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 55d
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $1 55d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $3 55d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $5 55d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 55d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $505 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records