Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

C5 0xc570…f0ff crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$275 (-17%) realized −$348 · open +$73

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate30%7W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$12est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16

7 days−$19

14 days−$366

30 days−$377

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)-39.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+1.7%	-8.0%	20%	20%	-11.6%
≤30d	23	-33.5%	-39.8%	30%	26%	-33.8%
≤90d	23	-33.5%	-39.8%	30%	26%	-33.8%
all	23	-33.5%	-39.8%	30%	26%	-33.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.8%	26%	-33.8%
10%	-45.6%	22%	-40.1%
15%	-50.8%	22%	-45.9%
20%	-55.6%	13%	-51.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -25% → late -41% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$39 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$269

Realized−$348

Unrealized+$73

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses7 / 16

Est. fees paid−$12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage26d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	23¢	$196	$269	+$73 (+37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Jun 29	$156	+$165	+106%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 29	$253	−$115	-45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$102	−$7	-7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 29	$103	−$27	-27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$190	−$34	-18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 20	$102	−$102	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$42	−$42	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 16	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 16	$21	+$21	+101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 16	$21	−$21	-100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$81	+$35	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 16	$51	+$8	+16%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham	Jun 16	$204	−$198	-97%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 12	$1	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 11	$1	$0	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Jun 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Jun 03	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Jun 03	$5	+$11	+208%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$321	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$104	1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	1¢	$2	1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	75¢	$151	2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	46¢	$137	2h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$102	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	45¢	$94	3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$75	3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$156	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$7	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$21	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$21	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	26¢	$21	12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$21	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$21	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$21	13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$102	13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	69¢	$81	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$16	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	13d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham	SELL Yes	1¢	$6	13d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Cham	BUY Yes	34¢	$204	13d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	65¢	$1	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$1	17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$1	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.14 · official $269.14 (match) · 82 history records