Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc570…b9b6 other 42 markets active 3d ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
other 18% +$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 7% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage295d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $102 −$2 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $53 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $92 +$4 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 11 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $22 $0 +2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia? Sep 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $26 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Aug 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Aug 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4000 and $4200 on August 27? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Was Kanye hacked? Aug 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $13 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4400 and $4500 on August 25? Aug 25 $38 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $39 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $31 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $31 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $49 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $49 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $49 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $50 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $52 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 56¢ $53 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records