Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc566…8f2e other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$268 (+12%) realized +$557 · open −$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$52
sports 20% −$173
crypto 2% +$35
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.4% +20.7% 73% 64% +3.0%
≤30d 11 +33.4% +20.7% 73% 64% +3.0%
≤90d 11 +33.4% +20.7% 73% 64% +3.0%
all 11 +33.4% +20.7% 73% 64% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.7% 64% +3.0%
10% +9.2% 64% -6.8%
15% -1.4% 64% -15.8%
20% -11.0% 36% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$74 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$557
Unrealized−$289
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 79¢ 62¢ $350 $273 −$77 (-22%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 81¢ 20¢ $200 $51 −$149 (-75%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 43¢ 16¢ $100 $36 −$64 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$37 +348%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 +$26 +49%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $107 +$54 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $53 +$35 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $210 +$84 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $186 +$114 +61%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $548 +$49 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $313 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 43¢ $106 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $53 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 17h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 17h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $52 26h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $55 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $53 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $210 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $186 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $200 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $348 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $106 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.47 · official $411.47 (match) · 31 history records