Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc562…ac17 crypto 387 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-1%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%375W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$18
14 days−$1
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$55
finance 7% +$10
other 7% −$24
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 1% -10.6%
≤30d 190 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 1% -11.5%
≤90d 387 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 1% -10.4%
all 387 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -10.4%
10% -19.1% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$18 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses375 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)387 / 387
History coverage69d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 387 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
XRP Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $26 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 17 $27 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $11 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 19? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $30 21h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 21h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21h
XRP Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 92¢ $50 22h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 97¢ $24 22h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 22h
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $30 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $26 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 91¢ $49 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $49 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.00 · official $14.00 (match) · 2027 history records