Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc561…410f other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,152 (-1%) realized −$2,152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%33W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,052per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$804now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$68
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$552
politics 34% −$39
sports 14% −$1,574
world 3% −$17
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$3
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -1.6% -11.0% 15% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 107 -13.4% -21.6% 5% 2% -11.2%
all 158 -0.7% -10.1% 21% 12% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 12% -10.7%
10% -18.7% 11% -19.3%
15% -26.6% 9% -27.1%
20% -33.8% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,237) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$804
Realized−$2,152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses33 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,052
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $805 $804 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4,135 −$5 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $361 +$5 +1%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $3,726 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,517 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,364 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,937 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,780 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $46 +$37 +79%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $2,136 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,995 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $269 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $482 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $748 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $718 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $549 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $56 +$39 +70%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,972 −$2 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,216 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,921 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $992 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $953 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $3,389 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 07 $3,254 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,445 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,193 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $3,454 −$4 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $4,404 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $805 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 3h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 35h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,065 43h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $563 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $564 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $361 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,061 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,062 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $740 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $741 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $852 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $853 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $663 6d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $664 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $912 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $914 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,063 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,065 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $77 10d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 11d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $984 12d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $985 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,163 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.47 · official $804.47 (match) · 515 history records