Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc55f…ca4e other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$1
world 31% +$1
politics 16% −$1
sports 10% −$10
crypto 6% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 25% -9.1%
≤90d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 20% 20% -12.9%
all 35 -1.5% -10.9% 11% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -10.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -19.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -27.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage260d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $4 +$1 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $49 −$4 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $47 +$5 +11%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $4 −$1 -29%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $39 −$10 -26%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $62 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $34 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $25 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $12 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $29 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $21 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 91¢ $23 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $36 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 87¢ $5 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $44 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 25¢ $3 26d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 35¢ $4 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $21 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $20 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $21 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $32 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $19 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.54 · official $47.06 (match) · 159 history records