Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

C5 0xc55f…16a6 crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$10 (-9%) realized −$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR37%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day77.0pace

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +37%

net ROI/market (all)+6.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+17.9%	+6.6%	58%	37%	-32.1%
≤30d	19	+17.9%	+6.6%	58%	37%	-32.1%
≤90d	19	+17.9%	+6.6%	58%	37%	-32.1%
all	19	+17.9%	+6.6%	58%	37%	-32.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover77.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+6.6%	37%	-32.1%
10% ← realistic here	-3.6%	26%	-38.6%
15%	-12.9%	26%	-44.6%
20%	-21.4%	11%	-50.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

36% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +58% → late -19% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day77.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	7¢	8¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 16	$12	−$12	-100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+134%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	-0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 16	$6	+$2	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$10	$0	+0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 16	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 16	$3	+$23	+728%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 16	$17	+$3	+15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$2	$0	+21%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Jun 16	$2	$0	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$1	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	57m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	58m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$1	1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$1	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$1	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	SELL Down	90¢	$9	1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$1	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	100¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$1	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	SELL Up	95¢	$3	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$1	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.36 · official $5.36 (match) · 89 history records