Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:20:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc55f…4676 politics 177 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,517 (-1%) realized −$2,517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%30W / 146L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,615per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$24
14 days−$48
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$275
politics 40% −$150
sports 11% −$2,148
economics 1% −$7
culture 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% −$2
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 53 +0.3% -9.3% 9% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -2.6% -11.9% 6% 3% -10.7%
all 176 +4.6% -5.3% 17% 11% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 11% -10.3%
10% -14.4% 11% -18.9%
15% -22.7% 10% -26.8%
20% -30.2% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,563) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$25 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$2,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses30 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 177
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,615
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $158 $159 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,685 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $2,923 −$5 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $397 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $6,684 −$7 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,823 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,340 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,844 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 11 $3,464 −$4 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $962 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $950 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $5,128 −$7 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $925 −$1 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $63 +$88 +140%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,322 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,807 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $58 +$54 +93%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $275 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $579 +$1 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,989 −$4 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $3,262 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $5,880 −$6 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $4,578 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $3,991 −$5 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $2,294 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $3,313 −$5 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 24 $46 +$40 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $358 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $359 2h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $474 42h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $475 44h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $452 47h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $452 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $396 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $397 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $475 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $476 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $425 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $426 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $243 3d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $243 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $431 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $432 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 3d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,051 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $852 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $853 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,073 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,074 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 9d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,052 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,053 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,043 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,045 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.71 · official $158.71 (match) · 619 history records