Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:25:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C5 0xc559…f2d1 crypto 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%70W / 51L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$275
14 days+$246
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$16
sports 29% +$311
other 5% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +12.4% +1.7% 50% 50% +54.4%
≤30d 121 +10.5% -0.1% 58% 57% +11.9%
≤90d 121 +10.5% -0.1% 58% 57% +11.9%
all 121 +10.5% -0.1% 58% 57% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 57% +11.9%
10% -9.6% 54% +1.2%
15% -18.4% 50% -8.6%
20% -26.4% 45% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses70 / 51
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $128 +$318 +249%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $134 −$7 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$12 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $445 7m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $128 1h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 18¢ $127 1h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 18¢ $134 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 2h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half AND England lead BUY 12¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $9 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records