Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc557…522d world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$2
other 21% −$8
politics 9% $0
culture 6% +$4
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -10.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 30% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 27 -2.1% -11.4% 26% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 7% -9.9%
10% -19.9% 7% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.4%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage301d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $69 +$2 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $19 −$11 -57%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $6 +$8 +120%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $16 −$6 -36%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $17 +$5 +27%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 19 $5 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 19 $3 $0 -18%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $18 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $37 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $38 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $38 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $22 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $12 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $38 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $38 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $5 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $30 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $32 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $16 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.34 · official $38.34 (match) · 101 history records