Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc554…ed99 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,412 (+1%) realized +$1,410 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%22W / 87L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,038per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$13
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$73
politics 24% −$37
sports 10% +$1,446
economics 4% −$6
world 4% −$2
culture 3% −$6
crypto 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 49 +2.6% -7.2% 14% 8% -8.1%
all 109 +3.4% -6.5% 20% 14% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 14% -8.5%
10% -15.4% 12% -17.2%
15% -23.6% 11% -25.2%
20% -31.1% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,421) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$5 · ×16.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized+$1,410
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses22 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,038
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $600 $602 +$2 (+0%)
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $378 $378 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $1,338 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $359 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,938 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,001 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $844 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,505 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,015 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,451 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $503 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $747 +$1 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,862 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,238 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $2,535 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,424 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3,078 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,052 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,732 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,367 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,810 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $1,826 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 29 $104 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 29 $52 +$11 +22%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 28 $1,595 +$728 +46%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,687 −$3 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $4,120 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,674 −$4 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6,404 −$6 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $2,200 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $3,348 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,400 −$1 -0%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 06 $1,197 +$598 +50%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 01 $74 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,425 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $378 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $391 2h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $391 3h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $300 43h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $301 44h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $410 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $410 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $359 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $359 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $600 8d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $895 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $897 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $729 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $730 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $853 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $854 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $757 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $758 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,000 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $843 14d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $844 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $706 18d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $707 18d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $800 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $801 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $980.29 · official $980.29 (match) · 359 history records