Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc552…2c42 sports 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-4%) realized −$79 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate63%305W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$9
14 days−$5
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$91
sports 22% −$15
other 3% $0
tech 2% +$3
world 1% −$10
politics 1% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 -5.1% -14.2% 67% 66% -12.3%
≤30d 313 -4.6% -13.7% 68% 67% -10.1%
≤90d 343 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 63% -15.3%
all 481 -7.6% -16.4% 63% 54% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 54% -14.4%
10% -24.4% 43% -22.6%
15% -31.7% 27% -30.1%
20% -38.4% 10% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses305 / 176
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)481 / 498
History coverage101d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 89¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 86¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 70¢ 15¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-78%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Parks Tessa Brockmann 78¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Suzan Lamens 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinina Anhelina Kalinina 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 76¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 75¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marie Mettraux Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -81%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pau win? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Will CSD Colo-Colo win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 96¢ $1 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 6h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 87¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 9h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM SELL LOS 100¢ $2 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $2 10h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY LOS 63¢ $1 13h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 14h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 72¢ $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 61¢ $1 16h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 90¢ $1 16h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda 65¢ $1 23h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $1 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 64¢ $3 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $2 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $1 23h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 24h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marie Mettraux BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 72¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.71 · official $25.70 (match) · 1262 history records