Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc551…fa51 sports 1131 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$54,710 (+22%) realized +$54,707 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate75%843W / 286L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$1,925est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$467
7 days+$3,350
14 days+$1,209
30 days+$15,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$23,577
other 39% +$16,014
world 2% −$337
crypto 0% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +14.8% +3.9% 73% 59% -0.6%
≤30d 504 +33.5% +20.8% 73% 63% +1.0%
≤90d 1129 +37.3% +24.2% 75% 65% +4.0%
all 1129 +37.3% +24.2% 75% 65% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.2% 65% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here +12.3% 50% -6.0%
15% +1.5% 37% -15.1%
20% -8.5% 26% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$98 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$54,707
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses843 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1,925
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1129 / 1131
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$219
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+161%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $38 +$10 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $498 +$109 +22%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $498 +$93 +19%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $860 −$158 -18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $70 +$13 +18%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 +$2 +10%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,269 +$579 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,803 +$901 +50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,448 +$640 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,644 −$3 -0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,200 −$1,780 -42%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $496 +$92 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$2 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 −$34 -80%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $419 +$221 +53%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $812 +$97 +12%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$38 +91%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $29 +$21 +70%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $525 +$195 +37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $50 +$18 +36%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$9 -14%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $131 −$1 -0%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$71 +142%
Spread: CD Ñublense (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,633 +$163 +10%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,106 +$354 +32%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $499 −$26 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Will AC Goianiense vs. CR Brasil end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$25 +295%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 +$16 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $316 +$134 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,687 +$517 +31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1,820 +$476 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $209 −$146 -70%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $864 +$64 +8%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $84 +$21 +25%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 $0 +3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $502 +$87 +17%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $1,354 +$146 +11%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2,540 +$278 +11%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $183 +$144 +79%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $7,340 +$158 +2%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 1h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 90¢ $48 1h
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $38 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $592 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $101 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $101 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $96 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $100 11h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 83¢ $100 11h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $93 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $93 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $382 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $92 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $90 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $327 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $335 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $70 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $24 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,245 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 66¢ $495 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.36 · official $15.26 · 3500 history records