Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C5 0xc550…272d world 230 markets active 1d ago coverage 143d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 143d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,573 (+3%) realized +$10,705 · open +$5,868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%129W / 40L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$2,225per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$143,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 143d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$12,290
other 22% +$10,433
politics 19% +$14,599
economics 2% +$4,303
culture 1% +$32
crypto 0% +$2
sports 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.3% +4.3% 80% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 24 +9.8% -0.6% 83% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 111 +21.5% +10.0% 80% 36% -2.0%
all 169 +37.9% +24.7% 76% 38% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.7% 38% -1.3%
10% +12.8% 22% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here +1.9% 16% -19.3%
20% -8.1% 12% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$2,670) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$463 vs −$599 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.49 per $1 lost it wins $2.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$143,064
Realized+$10,705
Unrealized+$5,868
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses129 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions78
Markets (closed)169 / 230
History coverage143d ⚠
Avg bet$2,225
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $12,454 $13,422 +$968 (+8%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $11,205 $11,387 +$182 (+2%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $8,929 $9,199 +$271 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $8,474 $9,103 +$628 (+7%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $7,678 $8,179 +$502 (+7%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $6,478 $6,714 +$236 (+4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 80¢ 88¢ $5,819 $6,391 +$572 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 97¢ $4,601 $5,796 +$1,195 (+26%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5,698 $5,787 +$89 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $5,060 $5,430 +$370 (+7%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $4,259 $4,594 +$335 (+8%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 78¢ 90¢ $3,995 $4,561 +$566 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $3,635 $3,848 +$213 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $3,231 $3,417 +$186 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $3,220 $3,238 +$18 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,083 $3,184 +$101 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $4,030 $3,180 −$850 (-21%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $2,915 $3,032 +$116 (+4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,931 $2,930 −$1 (-0%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $2,374 $2,574 +$200 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $2,400 $2,505 +$105 (+4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $2,247 $2,364 +$117 (+5%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $1,706 $1,720 +$14 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 77¢ 61¢ $2,107 $1,671 −$436 (-21%)
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $1,303 $1,442 +$138 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 25 $1,532 +$38 +2%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jun 24 $2,156 +$2,042 +95%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $8,412 −$3,690 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $4,140 +$359 +9%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4,024 +$581 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 19 $199 −$199 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 19 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 19 $465 −$465 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $315 +$35 +11%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Jun 15 $415 +$795 +191%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $310 +$190 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $7,694 +$1,578 +20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $11,527 +$693 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $3,204 +$81 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63 +$4 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,190 +$310 +26%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $652 +$65 +10%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $770 +$6 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $966 +$34 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $603 +$597 +99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1,978 +$22 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,572 +$178 +7%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,937 +$234 +8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 28 $900 +$39 +4%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $3,333 +$17 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $8,733 +$1,046 +12%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $120 −$120 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 18 $5,490 −$5,490 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 18 $7,551 −$7,551 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $608 +$174 +29%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $19 −$5 -27%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$5 -78%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 16 $2,766 +$1,081 +39%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$6 -91%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $7 +$139 +2011%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? May 14 $1,058 +$860 +81%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $26,727 +$3,490 +13%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 11 $1,400 +$891 +64%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $350 +$150 +43%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $7,648 +$702 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 01 $146 +$11 +8%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $495 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $345 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $260 32h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 32h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 33h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 99¢ $494 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $110 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $60 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 2d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,560 2d
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $77 2d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2,688 2d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $130 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $131 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $8 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $3,209 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $73 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $184 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $500 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $180 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $54 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $142 3d
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $152 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143,064.37 · official $143,063.56 (match) · 3500 history records