Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc550…e090 sports 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$856 (-2%) realized −$855 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%21W / 35L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$825per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$240
7 days−$876
14 days−$946
30 days−$946
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$59
other 18% −$507
sports 14% −$383
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 27% -13.8%
≤30d 56 -8.6% -17.3% 38% 29% -14.1%
≤90d 56 -8.6% -17.3% 38% 29% -14.1%
all 56 -8.6% -17.3% 38% 29% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 29% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 20% -22.3%
15% -32.4% 12% -29.8%
20% -39.0% 12% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$34 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$855
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses21 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage10d
Avg bet$825
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $178 $177 −$1 (-1%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $2,958 −$6 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $1,739 −$4 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 +$5 +13%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $143 −$89 -62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$10 -31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $4 $0 +10%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$6 +95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $74 +$13 +18%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $44 −$26 -59%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$29 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $186 −$78 -42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $577 −$120 -21%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 +$40 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $245 +$16 +6%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $152 −$123 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$16 -54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $322 −$42 -13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $231 +$26 +11%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$3 +95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$5 -14%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $3 +$1 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $130 −$43 -33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $114 −$70 -61%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$22 -73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $146 −$130 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,861 −$30 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,983 −$58 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $244 −$1 -0%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 +$17 +54%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $394 −$47 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 −$7 -4%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $213 −$141 -66%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$18 +194%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $60 +$18 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$10 -58%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $272 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $112 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $160 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $346 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $347 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $478 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $351 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $506 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $352 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $507 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $479 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $399 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $400 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $378 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $457 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $612 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $458 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $379 1h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $613 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $178 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $40 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $140 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $439 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $140 2h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $440 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.95 · official $176.67 (match) · 341 history records