Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc54e…dbc0 crypto 731 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-5%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%459W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$13
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$35
sports 31% −$41
other 27% −$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -12.0% -20.4% 68% 38% -19.2%
≤30d 70 -15.7% -23.8% 61% 33% -21.8%
≤90d 731 -6.0% -14.9% 63% 40% -15.1%
all 731 -6.0% -14.9% 63% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 40% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 26% -23.2%
15% -30.5% 15% -30.6%
20% -37.3% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses459 / 272
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)731 / 731
History coverage85d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 731 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -88%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $6 −$1 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $7 −$2 -24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +11%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 49m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 56m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 86¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $4 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $3 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $1 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 85¢ $1 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $4 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 93¢ $1 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 91¢ $4 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $3 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 55¢ $2 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 31¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 78¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 77¢ $6 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 83¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1960 history records