Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc54e…2148 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$321 (+12%) realized +$321 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate74%17W / 6L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$321
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 74% 65% +1.8%
≤30d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 74% 65% +1.8%
≤90d 23 +4.1% -5.8% 74% 65% +1.8%
all 23 +4.1% -5.8% 74% 65% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 65% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 48% -7.9%
15% -23.1% 30% -16.8%
20% -30.6% 26% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$89 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$321
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses17 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$73 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $204 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $209 +$219 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $73 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $104 +$100 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $203 +$46 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$61 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $321 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $114 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $152 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $191 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.87 · official $99.87 (match) · 58 history records