Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc54c…fbcb other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$3
world 30% −$1
politics 16% $0
crypto 9% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 22% 0% -10.1%
all 26 +4.8% -5.2% 42% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 4% -9.1%
10% -14.3% 4% -17.8%
15% -22.6% 4% -25.7%
20% -30.1% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage404d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 29 $27 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $28 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 +$4 +234%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 11 $23 $0 +2%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? Jul 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $24 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? May 15 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 18m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $12 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $15 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $27 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $0 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $28 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $31 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $24 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $4 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 26d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 26d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $29 26d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 188d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $3 200d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 200d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 200d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 98¢ $23 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records