trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 22% | 0% | -10.1% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 22% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 26 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 42% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.2% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -14.3% | 4% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -22.6% | 4% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -30.1% | 4% | -33.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 02 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | Jun 02 | $1 | $0 | -13% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 01 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 31 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $27 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 28 | $28 | −$1 | -3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 28 | $60 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 27 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | +$4 | +234% |
| Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Dec 11 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? | Jul 03 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 03 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Jul 02 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? | Jul 02 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? | Jul 01 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 29 | $24 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | May 26 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? | May 25 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | May 24 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | May 23 | $25 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? | May 19 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? | May 15 | $23 | $0 | +0% |