Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc549…a36e world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 28% +$2
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 38% 0% -9.2%
all 26 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -10.3%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage465d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 48¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $61 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 23 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Patriots draft Travis Hunter in 2025? Apr 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $2 $0 -30%
US lifts Russia sanctions before April? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 20 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $50 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $9 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $32 15h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $12 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $34 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 26h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $40 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $38 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $8 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $47 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.92 · official $50.40 (match) · 98 history records