Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc549…b7c0 politics 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$2
sports 28% −$3
other 7% +$2
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
culture 4% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 7 -13.9% -22.1% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 48 -9.2% -17.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage226d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $2 $0 -22%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $1 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $99 −$3 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $103 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 28 $101 $0 +0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $101 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $312 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $105 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $104 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $1 $0 -33%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 12 $1 $0 -50%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 29 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 13 $107 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $98 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 12d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 16d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 18d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $95 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 21d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 108d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 112d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $0 112d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 0¢ $0 113d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 113d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 115d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $94 120d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 121d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 123d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $0 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.71 · official $100.71 (match) · 185 history records