Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc547…abba other 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-8%) realized −$38 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$40
sports 26% −$35
other 25% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -20.8% -28.4% 29% 29% -10.4%
≤30d 51 -19.9% -27.6% 29% 29% -10.3%
≤90d 51 -19.9% -27.6% 29% 29% -10.3%
all 51 -19.9% -27.6% 29% 29% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 29% -10.3%
10% -34.5% 27% -18.9%
15% -40.8% 25% -26.7%
20% -46.6% 25% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$56 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1116%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +170%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 8¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $31 26h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 44h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 44h
Australia to score first vs. United States? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A BUY 5¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $10.02 · 82 history records