Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C5 0xc547…0751 sports 200 markets active 9h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$96 (-6%) realized −$76 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%79W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$57
14 days−$84
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$143
other 42% +$35
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -16.0% -24.0% 36% 35% -18.6%
≤30d 189 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 41% -13.5%
≤90d 197 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 40% -15.1%
all 197 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 40% -15.1%
10% -30.6% 34% -23.3%
15% -37.3% 25% -30.7%
20% -43.4% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses79 / 118
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)197 / 200
History coverage33d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-06-27? No 77¢ 53¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-06-12? Yes 86¢ 48¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-44%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 0.5 Under 12¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -41%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +93%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $8 −$6 -80%
Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$11 +178%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 +$9 +78%
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +27%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Dundalk FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +146%
Will Bohemians Dublin FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Sandnes Ulf vs. Stroemmen IF: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Stabaek IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will OC Safi win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $6 +$7 +109%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $12 −$7 -55%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $16 +$2 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $12 −$5 -43%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $14 −$5 -34%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $14 +$3 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $14 −$8 -58%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $18 +$5 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -33%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $13 −$5 -40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$3 -31%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$4 -43%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $12 −$7 -60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $8 +$2 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Landskrona BoIS leading at halftime? Jun 11 $16 +$16 +102%
Will Helsingborgs IF win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Landskrona BoIS win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $22 −$1 -4%
Helsingborgs IF leading at halftime? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +18%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $12 −$7 -61%
Spread: Helsingborgs IF (-1.5) Jun 11 $12 −$7 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $2 8h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 76¢ $2 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 34¢ $2 10h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $2 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 29¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 33¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 90¢ $6 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 79¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 4d
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 5d
Aasane Fotball vs. Odds BK: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $3 5d
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 5d
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $6 5d
Sandnes Ulf vs. Stroemmen IF: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.35 · official $7.35 (match) · 631 history records