Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc546…058e sports 753 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (327 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$42,144 (+36%) realized +$42,144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%413W / 574L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day326.5pace
Fees−$1,478est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$22,449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (327 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 728 -42.2% -47.7% 30% 28% -25.8%
≤30d 987 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 40% -12.8%
≤90d 987 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 40% -12.8%
all 987 -18.4% -26.2% 42% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover326.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 40% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.2% 33% -21.2%
15% -39.7% 27% -28.8%
20% -45.6% 22% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$76 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42,144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses413 / 574
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,478
Open positions0
Markets (closed)987 / 753
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$156
Trades / day326.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 987 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $191 −$191 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 29 $92 −$92 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 29 $242 −$242 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 29 $136 −$136 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 29 $72 −$72 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 4.5 Jun 29 $38 −$38 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 29 $109 −$109 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $96 −$96 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 11.5 Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $156 −$156 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Jun 29 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 84¢ $148 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 84¢ $149 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 68¢ $125 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 66¢ $120 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 32¢ $48 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $111 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $47 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $111 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $85 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $8 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $2 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $6 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $23 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 20¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 23¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 89¢ $157 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 89¢ $157 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 90¢ $66 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records