Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:59:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc542…7fe1 sports 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,149 (-2%) realized −$1,145 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate59%172W / 118L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day43.2pace
Fees−$610est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$847
7 days−$1,876
14 days−$1,893
30 days−$1,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$658
other 6% −$468
crypto 5% −$292
weather 1% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -13.1% -21.3% 57% 41% -16.1%
≤30d 229 -11.9% -20.3% 58% 39% -11.6%
≤90d 290 -12.9% -21.2% 59% 39% -11.5%
all 290 -12.9% -21.2% 59% 39% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 39% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 22% -20.0%
15% -35.7% 14% -27.7%
20% -42.0% 10% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$83 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses172 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$610
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage32d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Dallas Wings 75¢ 72¢ $90 $86 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $36 +$19 +53%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 23 $31 +$38 +123%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 −$2 -53%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -24%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +17%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $19 −$19 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $279 −$99 -35%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $73 +$12 +17%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 22 $73 +$47 +66%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $70 −$40 -58%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $42 +$8 +19%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA European Fina Jun 21 $1,100 −$809 -74%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 21 $34 −$8 -22%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter Jun 21 $285 +$15 +5%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $157 +$2 +2%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $1,416 −$728 -51%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 172.5 Jun 21 $512 −$512 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $554 −$548 -99%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $8 −$5 -65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $2,031 +$265 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $800 +$101 +13%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $770 +$101 +13%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $591 −$585 -99%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $350 +$149 +43%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $509 +$75 +15%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $1,784 +$214 +12%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $239 −$1 -0%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $893 +$848 +95%
ITF Irvine: Bryce Nakashima vs Ronit Karki Jun 20 $540 −$540 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $2,173 −$674 -31%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $1,636 +$199 +12%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $429 +$232 +54%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $1,000 +$400 +40%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $596 +$24 +4%
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 17 $960 +$20 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $903 +$47 +5%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $595 +$104 +18%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $20 +$2 +10%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $91 50m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 92¢ $55 1h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 60¢ $36 2h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 93¢ $33 2h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 93¢ $37 2h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 41¢ $31 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 40¢ $16 4h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 35¢ $11 5h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 35¢ $3 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $15 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $13 10h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 74¢ $19 12h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $30 12h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 80¢ $4 12h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Fabian Marozsan 80¢ $20 12h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Alex Molcan 31¢ $6 12h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan BUY Alex Molcan 58¢ $12 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 53¢ $13 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 53¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.80 · official $85.80 (match) · 1446 history records