Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc542…3b92 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%20W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$25
14 days−$33
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$21
other 25% −$25
sports 23% −$26
crypto 9% −$11
finance 5% −$8
world 4% −$6
culture 3% −$1
economics 2% −$2
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.4% -10.8% 5% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 72 -1.1% -10.5% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 155 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 162 -0.7% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses20 / 142
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)162 / 163
History coverage98d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $473 −$4 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $64 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $121 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $387 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $68 −$4 -6%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $131 −$2 -2%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $72 −$3 -4%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $173 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $60 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $256 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $60 −$2 -2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $28 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $158 −$2 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $291 −$2 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 02 $63 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $242 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $194 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $58 −$3 -6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $164 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $228 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 28 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $176 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $247 −$4 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $168 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $65 38m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $57 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $64 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $64 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $61 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $61 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $66 17h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $66 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $48 24h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $38 30h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $66 31h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 93¢ $68 37h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $64 37h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $68 45h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 45h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $59 2d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $69 2d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $72 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $67 2d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $67 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $66 2d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $66 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $30 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 3d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $70 3d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $73 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.31 · official $65.31 (match) · 676 history records