Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc53f…8d44 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$324 (-39%) realized −$297 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$340
weather 27% −$8
other 8% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-41.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 56 -35.4% -41.6% 39% 29% -62.2%
≤90d 56 -35.4% -41.6% 39% 29% -62.2%
all 56 -35.4% -41.6% 39% 29% -62.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.6% 29% -62.2%
10% -47.2% 21% -65.8%
15% -52.3% 20% -69.1%
20% -56.9% 16% -72.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage17d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 83¢ 62¢ $69 $51 −$18 (-26%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Yes 47¢ 26¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 04 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$7 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 04 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 14m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $42 18m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $13 19m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $4 20m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 20m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 83¢ $10 21m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 22m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 22m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 46m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 48m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 84¢ $81 51m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $58 57m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 91¢ $33 57m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $18 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $16 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL Yes 96¢ $4 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $9 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.45 · official $116.20 (match) · 158 history records