Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C5 0xc53c…c2d7 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$180 (+7%) realized +$180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%35W / 12L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day76.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +3.7% -6.2% 74% 53% +2.6%
≤30d 47 +3.7% -6.2% 74% 53% +2.6%
≤90d 47 +3.7% -6.2% 74% 53% +2.6%
all 47 +3.7% -6.2% 74% 53% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 53% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 38% -7.2%
15% -23.3% 13% -16.2%
20% -30.9% 11% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses35 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day76.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $155 +$265 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $125 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $125 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $203 −$100 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $125 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$42 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $132 +$43 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $126 +$14 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $81 +$26 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $77 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $125 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $27 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $54 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $127 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $127 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records