Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C5 0xc53a…625f crypto 1142 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,710 (-8%) realized −$1,720 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%664W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$182
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$1,395
weather 19% −$330
sports 1% −$58
other 1% −$76
tech 0% −$59
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 61% -17.0%
≤30d 141 -7.6% -16.4% 61% 61% -17.0%
≤90d 1141 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 58% -18.0%
all 1141 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 58% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 58% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 57% -25.9%
15% -32.5% 50% -33.0%
20% -39.1% 27% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,720
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses664 / 477
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1141 / 1142
History coverage73d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 68¢ 96¢ $24 $34 +$10 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$7 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$10 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$11 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$8 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$9 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$11 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$9 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $25 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $24 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $25 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $19 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $24 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $24 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.10 · official $19.46 · 3086 history records