Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc53a…1a6b world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$4
other 26% −$8
politics 5% $0
sports 4% +$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 8% -8.4%
≤30d 24 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 24 -3.6% -12.8% 42% 4% -8.7%
all 43 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 2% -9.9%
10% -23.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -31.1% 2% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage481d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $49 $0 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $56 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $54 +$2 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +42%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $128 +$2 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $72 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $47 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $47 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $33 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $20 −$1 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 06 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will Abdul Carter be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $15 $0 -0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $16 +$1 +5%
Central Arkansas vs. Lipscomb Mar 20 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $49 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 4h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $56 31h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $56 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $56 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $54 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $51 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $52 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.40 (match) · 149 history records