Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C5 0xc53a…a613 other 15 markets active 2d ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+3%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$7
crypto 4% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +46.6% +32.6% 86% 71% -4.2%
≤30d 7 +46.6% +32.6% 86% 71% -4.2%
≤90d 7 +46.6% +32.6% 86% 71% -4.2%
all 12 +21.4% +9.8% 58% 50% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 50% -6.4%
10% -0.7% 50% -15.4%
15% -10.3% 50% -23.6%
20% -19.1% 42% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage146d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $58 +$57 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +41%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease? Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +110%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $11 +$13 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$2 +87%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Mar 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 29 $1 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $58 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 91d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 91d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 135d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 137d
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease? BUY No 96¢ $4 137d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 137d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 138d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $1 138d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 144d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 145d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $1 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.40 · official $80.41 (match) · 28 history records