Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C5 0xc53a…ae86 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$164 (+27%) realized +$179 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$98
other 28% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +33.3% +20.6% 88% 88% +33.8%
≤30d 8 +33.3% +20.6% 88% 88% +33.8%
≤90d 8 +33.3% +20.6% 88% 88% +33.8%
all 8 +33.3% +20.6% 88% 88% +33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 88% +33.8%
10% +9.1% 88% +21.0%
15% -1.4% 88% +9.3%
20% -11.1% 62% -1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$10 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.79 per $1 lost it wins $16.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized+$179
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 67¢ 66¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 66¢ 66¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Yes 24¢ 14¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 40¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $82 +$38 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $72 +$45 +63%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $26 +$14 +56%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $41 +$24 +58%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $32 +$17 +53%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 +$16 +40%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $28 +$14 +51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 66¢ $35 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Jordan 34¢ $35 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Jordan 35¢ $39 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $14 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 67¢ $153 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 67¢ $82 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $72 12h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $32 28h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $26 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $41 36h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $41 41h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 65¢ $28 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.06 · official $213.06 (match) · 21 history records