Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C5
0xc533…258c
world · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$119 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses8 / 30
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage480d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $19 −$4 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $79 −$5 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $123 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $57 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 03 $17 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $44 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $33 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $2 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 26 $63 −$1 -1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $59 +$5 +8%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $277 −$2 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $308 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $76 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Brian Armstrong say AI/Artificial Intelligence times during his X Feb 19 $117 −$117 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$2
world 25% −$1
sports 18% $0
politics 8% +$4
tech 4% −$117
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $6 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $8 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $19 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $40 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $19 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $17 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $32 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.3% 0% 0% -13.2%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 19% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 37 +0.1% -9.5% 22% 3% -9.5%
all 38 -2.6% -11.9% 21% 3% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 3% -13.8%
10% -20.3% 3% -22.0%
15% -28.0% 0% -29.6%
20% -35.0% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.25 (match) · 148 history records