Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C5 0xc532…e86f crypto 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$174 (-5%) realized −$94 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%169W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$164
14 days−$68
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$180
sports 39% −$87
crypto 9% −$21
politics 2% +$29
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 110 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 39% -14.6%
≤90d 117 -14.0% -22.2% 48% 39% -14.0%
all 289 -10.4% -18.9% 58% 44% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 44% -14.9%
10% -26.7% 34% -23.0%
15% -33.8% 27% -30.5%
20% -40.3% 14% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses169 / 120
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions10
Markets (closed)289 / 300
History coverage137d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 97¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+90%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 69¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 67¢ 67¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 22¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-46%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 43¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-48%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 10¢ $50 $8 −$42 (-84%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 6¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Over 26¢ 2¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$10 +50%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 $0 +10%
João Félix: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +41%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 +$8 +20%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$21 -84%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$15 +76%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 23 $10 +$19 +191%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $20 $0 -1%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq to score first vs. France? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
France to win the second half? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$11 +54%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$4 +21%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 +$9 +60%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $19 +$42 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $24 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 3h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 3h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 4h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 24h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 28h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 28h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 28h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.03 · official $140.04 (match) · 706 history records