Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc52f…64ee crypto 42 markets active 102d ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,325 (+26%) realized +$11,325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$1,034per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% +$11,601
other 30% −$3,964
economics 13% +$1,909
sports 9% +$3,285
culture 7% −$1,287
politics 4% −$1,700
world 3% +$2,226
finance 2% −$800
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 42 +6.2% -3.9% 36% 31% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 31% +15.7%
10% -13.1% 31% +4.6%
15% -21.5% 29% -5.5%
20% -29.2% 26% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,100) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,669 vs −$551 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,034
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $300 +$665 +222%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 04 $800 −$800 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 04 $500 −$500 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $1,000 +$2,226 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Feb 21 $500 −$493 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 18 $2,523 +$5,371 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 17 $500 −$495 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3PM ET Feb 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 16 $700 +$1,545 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 16 $1,000 +$3,720 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 16 $1,300 −$1,295 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 16 $800 −$646 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 16 $800 −$791 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $500 +$596 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 16 $500 +$1,620 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 14 $500 −$496 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $8,833 −$3,093 -35%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $1,800 −$1,217 -68%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 30 $500 −$456 -91%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 30 $200 −$48 -24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 28 $100 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $4,200 +$1,511 +36%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $900 +$898 +100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Nov 11 $96 $0 +0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Nov 05 $500 +$32 +6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 04 $598 −$34 -6%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 04 $1,100 −$69 -6%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Nov 03 $400 −$271 -68%
Democratic sweep? Nov 03 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Zcash flip Monero by December 31? Nov 02 $250 −$234 -94%
Maduro out in 2025? Nov 01 $1,100 +$2 +0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Nov 01 $759 −$3 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 01 $693 +$226 +33%
North Carolina vs. Syracuse Nov 01 $2,642 +$3,976 +150%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $2,011 +$1,640 +82%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $1,385 −$692 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $1,000 +$1,011 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3? Oct 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4? SELL Yes 94¢ $965 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY Yes 28¢ $800 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 4? BUY Yes 29¢ $300 102d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $500 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $500 114d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1,000 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2,559 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5,335 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $363 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1,414 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $746 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $500 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $200 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4,720 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $518 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $482 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $155 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $145 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $257 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $743 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $146 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $800 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $700 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $800 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $500 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $500 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $500 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $100 121d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,171 191d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL No 0¢ $973 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records