Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C5 0xc525…73e5 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% +$1
world 32% +$7
other 15% $0
sports 8% $0
weather 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 0% -4.5%
≤30d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 10 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -7.7%
all 41 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -8.8%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.5%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.27 per $1 lost it wins $12.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage320d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $54 +$3 +6%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $80 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $80 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 22 $7 $0 +6%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in August? Aug 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025? Aug 08 $49 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 07 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $57 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $54 4h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $41 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $21 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $28 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $29 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records