Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C5 0xc524…0145 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,715 (-9%) realized −$5,027 · open −$688
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 47L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,009per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$10,565
sports 21% +$3,073
other 2% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +262.4% +227.9% 33% 33% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +196.4% +168.2% 25% 25% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +57.3% +42.3% 10% 10% -18.3%
all 65 +1.3% -8.3% 28% 28% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 28% -19.1%
10% -17.1% 26% -26.9%
15% -25.1% 26% -33.9%
20% -32.4% 26% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,447) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,404 vs −$802 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$5,027
Unrealized−$688
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage229d
Avg bet$1,009
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) Honvéd 50¢ $688 $1 −$688 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1,377 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,377 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA Jun 25 $1 +$6 +787%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $36 −$4 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 22 $1,389 −$14 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on April 15? Apr 15 $1,380 −$690 -50%
Spread: FC Baník Ostrava (-2.5) Apr 14 $2,400 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8AM ET Mar 02 $4,888 −$4,888 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Mar 02 $2,495 +$2,397 +96%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 1AM ET Mar 01 $2,786 −$2,786 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 28, 10AM ET Feb 28 $3,145 −$3,145 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 6AM ET Feb 28 $534 +$534 +100%
Will Hillary say "President" 5+ times during her Epstein testimony? Feb 28 $6 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 27 $3 $0 +12%
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Feb 27 $10 $0 -2%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5PM ET Feb 27 $2,626 −$2,626 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $2.50? Feb 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? Feb 08 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 4AM ET Feb 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 6AM ET Feb 08 $20 +$20 +100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 11PM ET Feb 07 $4,585 −$4,585 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 5PM ET Feb 07 $2,300 +$2,300 +100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 2 above $4.50? Feb 06 $7 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Feb 03 $2,734 −$2,734 -100%
Cedric Coward: Points O/U 13.5 Feb 03 $1,370 +$1,370 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 9AM ET Feb 01 $1,447 −$1,447 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2AM ET Feb 01 $5,726 +$5,726 +100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 12PM ET Jan 31 $2,864 +$2,864 +100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jan 31 $12 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 12AM ET Jan 31 $1,439 +$1,439 +100%
Warriors vs. Jazz: O/U 241.5 Jan 29 $1,885 +$2,212 +117%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Jan 27 $1,035 +$1,035 +100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jan 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jan 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 25 $5 $0 -1%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 25 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 3AM ET Jan 25 $1,581 +$1,581 +100%
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 3PM ET Jan 24 $1,431 −$1,431 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 6AM ET Jan 24 $1,505 −$1,505 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 2PM ET Jan 23 $994 −$994 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 1PM ET Jan 22 $1,606 −$1,606 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 10AM ET Jan 20 $1,034 −$1,031 -100%
Hornets vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5 Jan 19 $530 +$509 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) SELL OlyBet SB 100¢ $1,375 1h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA BUY No 11¢ $0 3d
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Switzerland vs Canada FIFA BUY No 11¢ $1 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 41¢ $2 16d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $2 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes $0 30d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes $1 30d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes $0 30d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29? BUY Yes $0 30d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $10 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $3 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,156 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 66d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.69 (match) · 227 history records