Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C5 0xc523…201b politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$2
politics 26% +$2
other 22% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 5% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 30% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 30% 0% -9.0%
all 42 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage274d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $45 −$1 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $29 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 05 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $107K in September? Oct 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 26 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $36 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $3 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $44 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $45 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $26 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 26h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 9¢ $16 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 9¢ $15 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $13 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $27 17d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $39 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $39 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $4 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $10 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $25 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $38 21d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $3 188d
Iran Nuke in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $23 260d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $8 260d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records