Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C5 0xc51f…5dc6 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$326 (+8%) realized +$1,462 · open −$1,136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$832per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$687
sports 24% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.3% +9.7% 75% 75% +6.0%
≤30d 4 +21.3% +9.7% 75% 75% +6.0%
≤90d 4 +21.3% +9.7% 75% 75% +6.0%
all 4 +21.3% +9.7% 75% 75% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 75% +6.0%
10% -0.8% 75% -4.1%
15% -10.4% 75% -13.4%
20% -19.1% 50% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$272 vs −$500 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,163
Realized+$1,462
Unrealized−$1,136
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$832
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 Yes 83¢ 42¢ $2,299 $1,163 −$1,136 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $354 +$249 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $489 +$368 +75%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $997 1h
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $1,314 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $354 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 6h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $857 6h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $488 9h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 57¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 55¢ $116 21h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 55¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 55¢ $381 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,163.35 · official $1,163.35 (match) · 13 history records